Egészségbiztonság
Nemzeti Laboratórium
HUNGARY

Mathematical Modeling of Leprosy Examining the Effect of Awareness Programs in the Disease Transmission: An optimal Control Approach

Absztrakt: Considering all historically known diseases, leprosy is one of the most complicated and neglected and among all the persistent challenges in leprosy eradication goals, illiteracy, ignorance and lack of social awareness are the most crucial factors need to be tackled. In this connection, to develop a realistic mathematical model, two key points are being specifically focused in our study. The first one takes into account the social challenges, awkwardness faced by the affected persons and the ignorance which eventually develops the most-feared pathway of late diagnosis. The other one is evaluating proper control therapeutic strategies by invoking social awareness via mass media campaign and making the susceptible, asymptomatic and symptomatic unaware people able to gather substantial amount of knowledge about leprosy to implement in the daily life scenario. Our seven dimensional nonlinear ODE-based model constructed to tackle the above mentioned vital issues, is investigated for existence of solutions, boundedness, positive invariance and different stability examinations and then, an optimal control-induced system is formulated and analyzed by incorporating two time dependent control measures. Using Pontryagin’s minimum principle, suitable optimal control profiles are evaluated and rational optimistic guidelines are presented for the eradication of leprosy in near future. Our analytical results are supported and illustrated through numerical simulations in Python where values of some of the system parameters are chosen from some recent experimental studies.